The results of the investigations of voter fraud by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) have become critically important in determining the outcome of the August 20 Afghan election. The Afghan people will not be satisfied with the electoral process until the work of the ECC is completed, which could take several more weeks. A Karzai victory amidst unresolved allegations of vote tampering would leave his new government on shaky ground and damage the credibility of the coalition forces, which would be perceived as supporting a sham election. Commentators are increasingly …
A recently-released study by British academic Shaun Gregory that claims Pakistani nuclear complexes have been attacked on three occasions in the last two years has stirred fresh concerns about the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Ensuring that Pakistani nukes stay out of the hands of terrorists certainly must be priority number one for the U.S. government. However, there is little need to panic about this issue, at least in the short-term. The study cites three attacks since November 2007 – one on a nuclear missile facility, one at …
Pakistani officials have been making a series of surprising statements over the last week. Last Friday, Chief of Army Staff General Kayani told a group of Pakistani naval officers that “[w]hile the external threat to Pakistan continues to exist, it is the internal threat that merits immediate attention.” The statement seemed to signal a welcome shift in Pakistani thinking and apparent acknowledgement of something senior U.S. officials have been trying to drive home to Pakistan’s strategic establishment: the genuine threat to the country’s future comes from terrorists seeking to undermine …
President Obama’s speech was an attempt to create deeper understanding between America and Muslims throughout the world, but the feel-good impact of the speech is unlikely to last long or change opinions about America among those who object to U.S. policies in the Middle East and South Asia. His pledge to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam was welcomed by Muslim observers. He also emphasized the need for more tolerance and the safeguarding of diversity in Muslim-majority countries, a point that needs to be made more often and more loudly. …
Today’s bombing in Lahore – the third major terrorist attack in Pakistan’s cultural capital this year – is likely retaliation for the Pakistan military’s recent operations in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). On April 24th, the military started operations to roll back the Taliban in the Buner, Dir and Swat Valley districts of the NWFP. The latest incident demonstrates the militants are capable of attacking anywhere in the country. The militants are seeking to intimidate the Pakistani people and weaken Pakistani resolve in the fight against terrorism. In the …
The Taliban’s agreement to pull out of Buner district in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) earlier today, following Pakistan’s deployment of paramilitary troops to the area, demonstrates that the Pakistan military has sent the right signal to the Taliban (at least for now). The Taliban’s occupation of Buner soon after the Pakistani Government conceded the Swat Valley to the militants seems to have raised sufficient alarm among the senior Pakistani Army leadership to coax them into action. The situation in Pakistan remains highly precarious, however. Unless the civilian and …
The long-awaited new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan that President Barack Obama unveiled this morning is the clearest signal yet that the Obama Administration intends to dedicate the time, resources, and U.S. leadership necessary to stabilize the region and contain the terrorist threat in South Asia. Obama laid out a strong case for the American people on why we need to remain committed to Afghanistan, reminding that the terrorists responsible for 9/11 remained in Afghanistan and Pakistan and need to be defeated to ensure the future security of the American …
Islamabad’s decision to allow the implementation of a parallel Islamic courts system in the Malakand Division of the Northwest Frontier Province demonstrates the weakness of the Pakistan government and military in the face of an onslaught by Taliban-backed extremists seeking to take over parts of the province. The government’s capitulation to the Tehrik Nifaz-i-Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM) in Swat Valley following its campaign of violence and intimidation, which included the shuttering of dozens of girls’ schools, murder of women who declined to stop work, and public beheadings of those accused of …
When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Japan this week, one of the main topics of conversation will be developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Japan has played an important role in contributing to efforts to stabilize and secure South Asia over the last seven years. Washington should welcome a more robust Japanese role in the region and strongly support Tokyo’s plan to hold an international donor’s meeting on Pakistan (possibly in March) to help raise funds for the cash-strapped economy. Japan has already played a helpful role in Afghanistan, despite …
The appointment of a Senior Representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan is a welcome development that should help fulfill a long-standing need to better integrate U.S. policy toward these two key countries. It will be helpful to have the focused attention of a senior official who is neither attached to the Embassy in Afghanistan nor the Embassy in Pakistan to bring these two countries together to counter the Taliban/al-Qaeda threat that spans both countries. Part of the problem of dealing with terrorism in South Asia over the past seven years has …
