As the civil-war-stricken Iraqi government continues to battle the Islamic State, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been closely watching its substantial oil holdings in the region. Watching, however, is all it can do.
China has long emphasized its Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, emphasizing respect for sovereignty and non-aggression. Though these principles are neglected in disputes with its neighbors, with increasing global investments and dependence on foreign oil, China’s non-interventionist diplomacy has been challenged in recent years.
The dramatic 2011 evacuation of Libya and political turmoil in oil-rich Sudan served as tests to China’s non-intervention, but the recent violence in Iraq is particularly challenging. China is the largest importer of Iraqi oil, and over 10,000 Chinese nationals staff Iraqi refineries. These investments make up 10 percent of China’s imported oil, imports that are only growing. Imported energy is the main fuel of China’s continued economic rise, and securing consistent supply is paramount.
Oil, therefore, may be one asset important enough to bring China out of its non-interventionist shell. If the U.S. is unwilling or unable to provide global stability, there will be more and more pressure within the PRC to start filling the gap to ensure its own energy security. If the South China Sea is any indication, increasing Chinese intervention may well impact the interests of the U.S. and its allies. While their power projection capabilities are nowhere near America’s, the Chinese are increasing their defense budget and acquiring such capabilities as an aircraft carrier and more amphibious ships.
Increasing Chinese influence abroad, however, is not necessarily at odds with U.S. interests. Indeed, it was Bush-era diplomat Robert Zoellick who first urged China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in international aid and multi-national cooperation. Yet the United States should remember that while altruistic efforts lead to cooperation, resource-driven initiatives lead to friction. China’s interests appear to be far more the latter than the former.
The Chinese don’t currently have the capabilities to project influence much farther than their own periphery, but in Iraq, the costs and risks of undefended investments are getting higher. Increasing oil needs mean that China can’t stay neutral forever.
D. Gerard Gayou is currently a member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation. For more information on interning at Heritage, pleaseclick here.
