12 Days of Obamacare Surprises: A 50/50 Split on Enrollment Estimates

Not all surprises are good. When it comes to Obamacare, the original projections are turning into unfortunately different realities. For the next seven days, Heritage is going to highlight one of the various changes in Obamacare projections (e.g., cost, enrollment, etc.) from when the law first passed until now.

Obamacare expands Medicaid eligibility to able-bodied, childless adults earning up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL).

In the March 2012 baseline, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that by 2022, Obamacare would enroll 17 million additional Americans into Medicaid.

In a July 2012 update, the CBO incorporated the Supreme Court decision that made Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion optional for states. Now that states have a choice in the matter, the CBO decreased its Medicaid enrollment projection by 6 million people in 2022.

Surprise: Without explaining their methodology, the CBO projected that exactly half of those no longer projected to be on Medicaid would become uninsured and that the other half would enroll in the exchanges. CBO’s rationale is about as clear as eggnog.

12 Days of Obamacare Surprises:

5. More uninsured Americans…

4. Increased exchange subsidies…

3. Big tax increases…

2. The small business tax credit…

1. And the individual mandate.