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If IPCC Sea Level Numbers Aren’t Bad Enough, Try Tripling Them

Posted By David Kreutzer, Ph.D. On July 22, 2011 @ 5:15 pm In Energy | Comments Disabled


A recent study [2] authored by Mark Crowell of the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that in the U.S., climate change will increase the area subject to flooding by 45 percent in 2100. But to get this number, the study used estimates of sea-level rise that were more than 200 percent higher than the estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even with its questionable temperature projections, the IPCC’s various projections [3] of sea-level rise are between .18 and .59 meters (about 7 to 23 inches) (See chart above.). However, the Crowell study uses a range of 0.75 to 1.9 meters (about 2.5 to 6 feet).

Sea-level rise over the past several decades—in reality—has been closer to the low end of the IPCC projections. Though some researchers claim the rate will accelerate, lately it has slowed down [3].

So the rule for climate hysteria seems to be: Trumpet the infallibility of the IPCC when its numbers are scariest, but ignore the IPCC when somebody else has scarier predictions. What is more galling is to ignore the IPCC projections while implying that new research is still based on them, as the media coverage of the Crowell study does.

Article printed from The Foundry: Conservative Policy News from The Heritage Foundation: http://blog.heritage.org

URL to article: http://blog.heritage.org/2011/07/22/if-ipcc-sea-level-numbers-aren%e2%80%99t-bad-enough-try-tripling-them/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/sea-level-rise-predictions.jpg

[2] study: http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/07/22/22climatewire-flood-prone-land-likely-to-increase-by-45-a-19117.html

[3] IPCC’s various projections: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf

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