When economists forecast the economy, they tend to draw straight lines. They figure out where we are and where we’re going, and they plot a line. In fact, neither contractions nor expansions are ever smooth. For various anomalous reasons in the economy and in the data, reported GDP movements are jagged. The reported economy accelerates, slows down, jumps, and pauses. So one ought to hesitate before reading too much into the latest economic data. However … The recent report on second quarter growth showing a reasonably strong 2.4 percent pace …
Both sides of the same-sex marriage debate reacted strongly to Judge Vaughn Walker’s decision in Perry v. Schwarzenegger to overturn Prop 8 in California. What has been most surprising is the developing consensus from prominent legal experts and analysts, including many who support the redefinition of marriage, who find Judge Walker’s opinion unpersuasive. Some argue that Walker failed to tie his legal rationale back to the Constitution’s text. Others were unimpressed with Judge Walker’s “findings of fact” that made sweeping generalizations and predictions about the social dimensions of his ruling. …
Washington Post reporter Walter Pincus, in his August 10 article “New START: A Similar Arms Reduction Pact but a Different Republican Reaction,” argues that Republican Senators are applying different standards for reviewing the 2002 Moscow Treaty between the U.S. and Russia for reducing strategic nuclear warheads and today’s New START, which seeks to limit offensive and defensive strategic weapons. The problem with the Pincus argument, as its title makes clear, is that it fails to account for the dramatic differences between the two treaties. Accordingly, it is essential to describe …
On July 21, when President Barack Obama signed the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill, he promised: “There will be no more taxpayer-funded bailouts. Period.” How long will this Obama promise last? Well, The New York Times reports today that “the Obama administration on Wednesday pumped $3 billion into programs intended to stop the unemployed from losing their homes,” including a program announced by the Department of Housing and Urban Development that “will draw on $1 billion authorized by the new financial overhaul law.” That’s right. The Dodd-Frank “no more taxpayer-funded bailouts …
Every once in a while an e-mail goes around petitioning for the ban of dihydrogen monoxide, a dangerous chemical. The reader is aghast to learn that dihydrogen monoxide is “the main ingredient in acid rain” and “capable of causing suffocation if encountered in large quantities” and often will sign the petition and forward it to friends. However, closer examination soon reveals two things: (1) dihydrogen monoxide is nothing other than water, and (2) the petition is, in fact, a jest. Recently, however, the EPA seems to be working along a …
Tucked away in the legislation that made Obamacare into law is a tax provision that will be a compliance nightmare for small businesses if it ever goes into effect. The provision calls for all businesses to file 1099 forms with the IRS for all transactions with other businesses over $600. Businesses are not like individuals. They purchase lots of items in large quantities. As a result, if the Obamacare reporting requirement goes into effect as scheduled in 2012, it would create an enormous compliance burden on businesses. Businesses would have …
The House of Representatives just passed the $26 billion education “jobs” bill by a vote of 247-161. The money will be split up with $10 billion going towards state and local workers in public education. The other $16 billion will go to state Medicaid payments. Speaker Nancy Pelosi had called members back from the August recess in order to pass the “emergency” piece of legislation. The public sector has been thriving at the expense of the private sector. Over at Jay Greene’s blog, Matthew Ladner displays the chart (click on …
Social Security faces the serious danger of failing to live up to its name due to its unfunded obligations. Last week, the Social Security and Medicare trustees issued their report on the fiscal outlook for the program. We reported that: Social Security has a $7.9 trillion shortfall (up $0.1 trillion from last year), which means the program would require $7.9 trillion in cash—today!—to afford its promises. Alternatively, closing that gap would require payroll taxes to rise immediately and permanently from 12.4 percent of earnings to 14.24 percent. For a worker …
ACORN might have disbanded, but the risk of vote fraud in the November 2010 elections is still real. “Desperate men and women will do desperate things to maintain power when the public threatens to take that power away from them,” said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union. “That means that, more so than in other years, [some candidates] are going to be relying on whatever kind of assistance they can get from whatever quarter that assistance might come.” That assistance will come from ACORN-like groups, Keene explained at …
According to the translation of an article appearing in the Russian newspaper Suvorovskiy Natisk on July 17, the Vostok 2010 Russian military exercise concluded with a simulated a low-yield nuclear strike. This simulated strike is consistent with the Russian policy of considering the use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons in regional conflicts where up to that point only conventional weapons would be used. As the United States Senate is in the midst of considering the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) arms control agreement with Russia, the Senate should …
