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  • What Scientific Method?

    President Obama's Economic team

    The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has released a projection of jobs created by the economic stimulus bill. However, the method they used to get these numbers falls short of basic scientific standards. The CEA modeled a potential outcome for the economy without the stimulus, basing it on historical data. They then compared this computer simulation with the actual data about what occurred with the stimulus – and have declared that the stimulus worked.

    This method would be met with a failing grade in any decent university economics course. A projection of a potential economic outcome based on a model must be compared with a baseline scenario produced by that same model. This is basic: the policy simulation must be compared with a baseline. Instead, the White House compared a simulation with empirical data!

    This is absurd because any slightly different assumption in a simulation will produce a different result. When comparing with a baseline these can be controlled—we can see what assumptions went into the baseline scenario and which went into the simulation of the policy. There are no hidden tricks. But if a simulation is compared to empirical data, we have no way to know why the two differ. It could be anything.

    What were the assumptions in this simulation, I wonder? Do they not know that they must use a baseline—or was this a purposeful political maneuver?

    Posted in Economics [slideshow_deploy]

    9 Responses to What Scientific Method?

    1. Harry Schell says:

      Had they done a rigorous analysis, they might have got data which would not be pleasing and useful for Obama.

      This presages the "jobs saved/created" scorecard that got pulled down when the news didn't fit Obama's story,

      Obama and his cadre say what they think will get them through to the next day. Truth is what advances the agenda. Facts are an inconvenience.

    2. Dim Bulb says:

      Sounds like they've taken lessons on "reports" from the IPCC, headed by a fellow economist, Rajendra Pachauri.

    3. Don, Bismarck, ND says:

      The picture tells it all. And those three are the top of obama's economic team. Pretty scary I think.

    4. Lloyd Scallan - New says:

      Over alnd over again the responses on the Foundry's blog show a total lack of

      understanding as to what is taking place in this country under the Obama administration. NOTHING, Nothing these socialist do or say is NOT a

      lie or distortion of the facts. People, Obama is determined to "transform" this

      nation into a socialist state. Don't be fooled! These people are nothing but

      Obama' s puppets. Obama is pulling their strings and speaking the words.

    5. Sam, WI says:

      They also seem to completely forget about the last and most important part of the Scientific Method: peer review. Unless, of course, they actually think they don't have any because of their positions. The same can also be said about anything else they use that is supposedly scientific.

    6. Leo, Phoenix AZ says:

      Excellent! Another prime example of "Ignoratio Elenchi".

      Just like forced auto insurance is acceptable, therefore, forced health insurance is also acceptable.

      My Economics degree from Purdue was not even necessary to get the point!

      Thank you, Heritage.org

    7. Marshall-Michigan says:

      BO's failure is because he said " JUST WORDS "

    8. Perry, OK says:

      Guess what? The CHANGE is not what all the AMERICANS where hoping for.

      I really believe in higher education, but this is unreal.The best ed in the world is of little or no use if COMMON (common)sense is not applied. We have all heard that the numbers don’t lie! So why is it that ob and his people think we are mushrooms(you know kept in the dark and fed bull). I don’t have to use my accountant to add up this last insult.

      So the question is “what to do now”.Stop and pray, then start looking for a new batch of people to send to Washington this year and 2012. Let us think beyond red and blue only. We the people need new blood that has not been captured by the system, we also need to limit them.

      Next we need to hold accountable the companies AND GOVERMENT offals(not officials)that put us into this mess myself believe a good old fashion sunday hanging after church, would go along way to sending the message”Do Not Tread On US”.

      In the mean time let us teach our country how to count and do basic math. Please someone send a copy to ob and his COMRADS!

    9. Leon, Durango, CO says:

      The Administration specializes in this kind of Junk Science, as if Economics were hard science. The same stupidity gave us the Income Tax, an abysmally stupid tax method because it simply vanishes Capital. Ask me? The economics of the Administration is all Junk Science, but it masks a gigantic theft! Surprise! Surprise! Plutocrats getting rich off of Obama's Junk Science again!

      Thanks for calling it. I just wish these Commies could be prosecuted for it. I guess it would be NOT PC to impeach, try and hang a President for Treason, but I can dream can't I?

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