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  • Iran’s Shaky and Deceptive Nuclear Deal

    The tentative nuclear deal that the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) reportedly has reached with Iran has been widely hailed as a success for the Obama Administration’s engagement policy. For example, today a Washington Post article described the deal as “providing a major boost for the Obama administration as it seeks to engage the Islamic republic.” But a closer look at the negotiations gives strong reasons for concern.

    First of all, the focus on helping Iran to refuel its research reactor in Tehran has distracted attention from the fact that Iran stubbornly insists that it will continue to enrich uranium in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions.  This is the main issue of the P5+1 talks, but it has been obscured by Tehran’s tactical flexibility on the issue of moving about three quarters of its known supplies of low enriched uranium (LEU) out of the country to be further enriched in Russia and turned into fuel rods by France.

    Second, the negotiations have boosted Iran’s case that it needs enriched uranium for “civilian” purposes but have not solved the problem of how to keep Tehran from diverting enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon. If Iran does in fact follow through on its promises to send the LEU to Russia, then the problem is only postponed, not resolved.  Iran can replace the LEU in a year or less with the centrifuges still whirling away at Natanz.  Meanwhile, Iran also could have other secret facilities dedicated to producing the highly enriched uranium needed to arm a nuclear weapon.

    Third, by giving the appearance of progress while the real problem remains, Tehran has bought more time in which to continue to enrich uranium without paying a penalty in the form of tougher sanctions. Iran now will stretch out the negotiations to defuse momentum for further sanctions that was generated by the latest revelation of Iranian duplicity about the secret uranium enrichment plant at Qom.  Before the latest round of talks, a senior Iranian official gloated that “Time is on our side” and that Iran would send junior officials who did not have the authority to make concessions to the October 19 talks, so that the talks can be dragged out further. President Obama said on October 1 that Iran must allow inspectors access within 2 weeks but Iran already has missed that deadline.  The IAEA inspectors will go in on October 25th, if the agreement in principle is still valid then.

    Fourth, the Obama Administration has an “agreement in principle” with a regime that has no principles, except to hold on to power and export its revolution.  As Ambassador John Bolton has written, “Diplomacy’s three slipperiest words are ‘agreement in principle.’” Iran could renege on its commitment, as it has done many times in the past.

    Iran already has altered the original agreement by claiming that France can not play a prominent part in the arrangements because of its past unreliability, which is a bad joke coming from Tehran.  Apparently, now the Russians will subcontract the manufacturing of the fuel rods for the Tehran reactor to France so that Tehran’s tender sensibilities will be protected.

    The bottom line is that contrary to popular belief, the negotiations with Iran have not produced a breakthrough that has resolved the long-simmering crisis over Tehran’s nuclear program. All they have yielded so far is an agreement in principle on a secondary issue that Iran can easily back away from in the future. Meanwhile, the push for further sanctions has been postponed despite the fact that Iran continues to enrich uranium.

    Posted in International [slideshow_deploy]

    13 Responses to Iran’s Shaky and Deceptive Nuclear Deal

    1. Paul Wolf says:

      Iran has more secret nuclear sites, Iran is diverting uranium under the nose of the IAEA – this is all conspiracy theory stuff. The author's view that the US is able to influence Iranian behavior through economic sanctions is also not rooted in reality.

      Iran has not yet spoken on whether it will accept the IAEA proposal. I think it's not in Iran's interest. Iran should say, "we've listened to you and considered your threats and proposals, and after considering them, do not believe that any of this is in our interest." Obama can implement his "change" somewhere else.

    2. Lloyd Scallan - New says:

      Obama is allowing a two-bit dictatorship to poke us in the eye and do nothing about it. WHY? Because Obama fully intends to destroy our security and sovereignty. More urgent than Iran is this U.N. Climate Change Tready he intends to sign in Copenhagen in December. When he signs this tready, the United States sovereignty is gone FOREVER! This tready will supersede our Constitution. Does anyone understand what that means? This country will be under the rule of

      a "wORLD GOVERNMENT", not our own rule of law.

      The really scary fact is we CANNOT get out of this

      tready! Go to the Patriot Depot site and watch the

      video. If this doesn't alarm every free thinking

      American, this country, as we know it, is finished. Just what Obama wants.

    3. Cayce Weber, Orem Ut says:

      Good job there Paul. What you left out…Israel has no choice but to bomb the living daylights out of Iran's plants and any suspected plants. Under current rule, Iran is capable and willing to do anything they want to hurt the world.

      IF Iran is faking, as Saddam Hussein did, then in the end, their trickery will bring the wrath of other nations, and they will end up as dead as Saddam. And none too soon.

    4. Normca says:

      Obama making a deal with Iran, who is backed by Russia, who Hillary gave a trinket to. Obama has no principles and does not stand by his word and so he is like Iran. First Obama does a speech and says Iran can have its Nukes, but then at the meeting with France and Germany, Obama says Iran should not be making Nukes. Then Obama says the US will dismantle its Nukes and then the missile shield in Europe. Then Russia says No to Hillary's request for penalties to Iran. Obama dises the French president and the German leader says No to spending like Obama. Obama holds back on troops for Afghanistan while U S MARINES are dying and U S allies are fighting in that country. And G Bush destroyed respect for the U S ?

    5. BMuff, California says:

      My wish is that someday soon our politicians and leaders, especially our President, will figure out that the "can't we all get along" pacifist approach just won't work with Iran which is a culture of liars and deceivers.

      The same could be said for Russia, N. Korea and probably China as well.

    6. Louis L Cesar F Levy says:

      It is of a proverbial that since its take over by Ali, Muhamad cousin'Iran is was converted into an advanced Post against Israel, the Jews and the West. They will not give-up what they longed for since then. Your government will rather help them prosper.So what?

      You know the only logical answer to this.

      As for America' sovereignty you also know what to do.

    7. Lew Richards , Palm says:

      I find it very strange that we have an Administration,The Obama Adminstration , that will not , cannot , represent our Nation in a Fair Way when discussing serious matters with another nation. Especially a nation that has such a sordid and unamerican past. Is our President just immature, naive , or careless? It really bothers me.

    8. Lynn B. DeSpain says:

      What's shaky? Works out perfect for Iran. Send Russia raw Uranium and get back pure, enriched, weapons grade uranium. Sounds like a grat deal for them. The rest of the World, Obamas One World, gets screwed.

    9. philip says:

      What a shame Presdent Obama will not be satisfied untill one of our cities are nuked because of lack of defence, and weak understanding of the true threat by the enmies of united states and our allies. Iran with the backing of Russia and China will be able to devolp the Abomb and force Isreal to defend it self by bombing Irans nukeluar sites drawning the world into diasterist world war. the weakness of the word powers not to crack down on Iran is a veary dangerious mistake you can't make deals with these type of leaders they are buying time for distruction.

    10. Ali, Tehran says:

      I write from Iran, the "Axis of Evil". I extremely appreciate the efforts of the Republican Party to force Obama administration to treat with the Islamic regime more seriously.

      I, as an Iranian, know very well about the ideology and principles of the Islamic regime and am sure of that some day you will be surprised by the first nuclear bomb of this regime. Unfortunately the Obama administration is going to that point. Although this matter will cause that the Democrat party to fail in the next elections and this would be good for me as a follower of the Republican party, but I can't hide my concerns regarding the way that this present administration in America has choosed.

      I think that finally it would be Israel that will take the responsibility of stopping the Iranian regime because I know that the Israelis politicians are capable of taking difficult but right decisions.

      In these weeks that the Iranian people have risen to overthrow their regime there is need for the politicians such as former president George W. Bush in America to support them. Unfortunately the Iranian people are now alone in the Axis of Evil and they are fighting against this Devil lonely.

      Today is the time for act, tomorrow will be too late.

    11. THE CAPTAIN, Nesw Or says:

      If we get nuked, Obama will blame Bush-Cheny.

    12. Neo, Coral Springs, says:

      Has anyone asked the Iranian government why they need nuclear energy when they are sitting on a lake of oil?

      I do not know why the U.S. allows itself to be dragged into negotiations with this type of government. These people do not respond to persuasion or negotiations. They only respond to a hard hand. We should probably pull back from Iraq and Afghanistan and place a close (really close) eye on the Iranian government.

    13. Pingback: Iran’s Diplomatic Rope-a-Dope Strategy | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News.

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