What if they ran a bailout program and no one came? Last year, the Bush Administration Treasury Department opened TARP’s doors to insurance companies, a number of which promptly filed for aid. Last week, the applications of six of those were approved ^[1], totalling some $22 billion. But rather than rush to claim their winnings, most of the firms are reconsidering. According to the Wall Street Journal ^[2], one — Ameriprise Financial — has already said no, and another — Prudential — is expected to decline soon. Two others, Allstate and Principal Financial Group may also decline. The remaining two — Hartford and Lincoln National — seem more likely to accept, although they want to review the final terms.

The hesitancy is due to the same factors that have led banks to run ^[3] screaming for the TARP exits. TARP aid, which looked relatively free at first, now comes with substantial strings — or worse, as a look at federally-occupied Detroit ^[4] shows.

The insurance companies are right to be afraid. They should be very afraid.