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  • Heartland Update: The Problems with IPCC’s Conclusions on Global Warming

    As many know, much of the global warming hysteria around the world is derived from the conclusions of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warns that human activity is causing the world to become dangerously warm. Al Gore, who projects 20-foot sea-level raises over an unspecified time period, considers the IPCC report the magnum opus for climate change evidence.

    Scientists in some respects are being paid to make, at best, guesses or projections of how climate change actually works and what temperatures will be like in the future. In reality, there is little actual science in the IPCC report. J. Scott Armstrong, a professor at the Wharton school at he University of Pennsylvania, stressed although there were over 2,500 scientists that signed the report, the message was controlled by only a few individuals.

    Terry Dunleavy, the executive vice-chairman of the International Climate Science Coalition and honorary executive director of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, emphasized that no definitive conclusion can be reached when it comes to the science of global warming. In fact, IPCC scientists’ own conclusion admitted they were highly uncertain about future climate change or the impacts of human carbon dioxide emissions.

    In a recent article by Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon, the authors convincingly argue that climate change models are useless for forecasting:

    “Scientific forecasting research has shown that experts aren’t able to provide accurate predictions in this kind of complex and uncertain situation. It doesn’t matter whether experts present their forecasts as certain outcomes, detailed scenarios, expectations, likelihoods or probabilities. Or that the forecasts are the product of hard thinking by many highly qualified experts, or even of mathematics or computer simulations. The expert forecasts are nonetheless worthless.

    The models employed by James Hansen and the IPCC are not based on scientific forecasting principles. There is no empirical evidence that they provide long-term forecasts that are as accurate as forecasting that global average temperatures won’t change. Hansen’s, and the IPCC’s, forecasts, and the recommendations based on them, should be ignored.

    This lack of credible climate forecasts matters, because proposed policies – including taxing carbon emissions and cap-and-trade regimes – will increase energy prices, cause major wealth transfers, and cost jobs. It would be immoral to impose such punishing policies on the basis of dodgy forecasts.”

    The full article, with more information, can be found here.

    So much for scientific consensus.

    Posted in Energy [slideshow_deploy]

    14 Responses to Heartland Update: The Problems with IPCC’s Conclusions on Global Warming

    1. Antonio Sosa, Florid says:

      Thinking people all over the world are realizing that man-made global warming is a hoax that threatens our future and the future of our children. The Pope is right about the dangerous dogma of the environmentalist movement. So is Vaclav Klaus, president of the European Union, when he states that "environmentalism is the new communism and climate change is a DANGEROUS myth."

      In agreement with the Pope and Klaus, more than 650 international scientists dissent over the man-made global warming claims. They are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction

      Additionally, more than 31,000 American scientists have signed onto a petition that states, "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate…" http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html

      "Progressive" (communist) politicians like Obama seem determined to force us to swallow the man-made global warming scam. We need to defend ourselves from the UN and these politicians, who threaten our future and the future of our children. Based on a lie, they have already wasted billions and plan to increase taxes, limit development, and enslave us.

      If not stopped, the global warming scam will enrich the scammers (Gore and Obama’s Wall Street friends), increase the power of the U.N. and communists like Obama, and multiply poverty and servitude for the rest of us.

    2. Arthur E. Lemay says:

      Obama says "..harness the power of science to achieve our goals." Then he seems to say this in the context "preserving our environment." He uses science to justify the cap and trade scheme which will raise taxes by billions, if not trillions of dollars. This is Orwellian double speak.

      And, it does not occur to him, or his science nominee, Dr. Holdren, that the CO2 theory of global warming is not science it is the environmentalists' "post hoc ergo hoc" fallacy. There is not one shred of scientific evidence that this is true — it's just a theory. And it is increasingly clear to everyone, especially to the great majority of climate scientists, that global warming stopped in 1998, and all the evidence since then, and for earlier periods in the 20th century, shows CO2 has little to do with the climate. Those who are most outspoken, like Dr. Holdren, have no academic or professional credentials to have any useful opinions about the climate, any more than a PhD in Cellular Genetics does. Of all the people on the United Nations Climate Panel only 20% are scientists at all, and few of those are climate scientists, and there is not even a single statistician. And we are expected to believe what they say?

      In the meantime, those scientists who are on the Federal dole, get enormous grants, or people like Al Gore who stand to make enormous amounts of money from this scheme, just keep parroting the same nonsense — and most people seem to believe it. No one asks why the climate models failed to have any does predictive value, why the other planets are cooling/warming in the same pattern like the earth, and why we should ignore the solar theory which does predict future climate. The reason that the climate change models don't work is that it is not CO2, it is the sun's energy emissions which control the climate, influenced by many other factors like volcanoes and ocean currents.

      So, Obama is anti-science if he can't consult with reputable scientists. The CO2 theory is nonsense, it is an environmentalists' fairy tale and money-raising scam. If Obama can't see this he is not much of a President, and if he gets his advice from those who have no credentials or experience we are in the hands of an imbecile.

    3. Barb -mn says:

      The problem with IPCC's conclusion on global warming is they have no proof and are running out of time to figure out how to manipulate, coerce, indoctrinate the people to believe in their threat of MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING that doesn't exist.

      Just think of all the innocent, law abiding, taxpayers who's money is being stolen right before their very eyes in the name of something that does not exist!

      Just think of the minds being wasted, who's freedom of choice could be innovating new and inventive ways to better the country and or world. If only government didn't impose this horrendous guilt and unnecessary urgency to focus on non-existence and what is also expensed to the taxpayers for the government to have (imaginary) control of. While creating unnecessary, unproductive, nonprofitable employment. Extremely poor investments attached.

    4. Barb -mn says:

      All the businesses closing in the name of MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING. All the freedoms lost in the name of MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING. All the increased taxes in the name of MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING. It only exists in the minds of those that demand the take over of people's lives and the sheep that follow. It's not nice to fool mother nature, as gore found out more then once.

    5. Andy - VA says:

      While I am a man-made global warming sceptic, I have seen verifiable observations that show solar and volcanic activity alone does not match temperature observations. I have seen verifiable observations showing the Arctic ice cap is shrinking and thinning. So which scientific evidence is right and which is wrong? Or, as is usually the case, are they both a little bit right…I think that's the problem with science today – facts are selected to support the hypothesis, instead of making a hypothesis and then trying to disprove it with facts.

    6. Dale, Cincinnati says:

      One of the most telling facts is that many of the climate models used to predict global warming have difficulty accurately reproducing past climatic changes…….yet we should believe.

    7. Brad S,, Detroit, MI says:

      Read this link for the history and background of the Global Warming Hoax. It is quite entertaining how you can invent science & conclusions when continued research funding is linked to the results you provide. Funny how the myth gets perpetuated.


    8. Barry Farr,Williamsp says:

      The Weatherguessers can't predict the weather more than 50% of the time. I'm supposed to believe they have this one all figured out. Give me a break! As complex as the earths system is and Global warming scientists all come to the same conclusion. The only way that you can have a certain output is if you so skew the data as to make it meaningless. I believe it is more telling that these so called enlightened people will not tolerate any open discussions on the subject.

    9. Lynn B. DeSpain says:

      I have more faith in the existance of the Loc Ness Monster, than I ever have in Global Warming.

      This fear of something that does not exist, just contributes to more unempolyment, more businesses shuting down, higher costs for goods and services, and most importantly for our beloved polititoins, more taxes.

      All for a hoax. The Holocost in Germany was all for a hoax. This is just as serious, just more subtle.


    10. JD, Hays KS says:

      The standard of "Economic Prosperity", Arnolds California, is a warning to all of us. The results of "greenies" and Al Gores agenda on the national economy is not a pleasant thought. Destroy or run off all the corporations in this country and we'll really grow small business.

    11. Spiritof76, New Hamp says:

      In response to Andy's posting, a fundamental fact to remember is that correlation is not causation.

      The models used wouldn't even cut as a first order engineering model. In order for the model to be rigorous, it needs to include all the factors that impact climate, not just Co2 and it must close on conservation of energy. The model discards the effects of solar activities!

      A complete model would be able to predict the mini-ice age of 1650-1720 coinciding with the Maunder Minimum. None of the models can. Just knowing single dimensional derivative of CO2 heat absorption is useless and is dangerous to extrapolate, as we are finding out now. The earth is cooling in spite of CO2 emissions!

    12. duelles, Santa Fe, N says:

      Thank you Brad S great link. Andy in VA, There is water vapor which accounts for over 97% of 'greenhouse gases" Let's ban that too. Each time you breathe you release it. Hold your breath!

    13. Joni, Homer, Alaska says:

      What gets me is the apparent lack of logical thinking capability of these people that refer to themselves as "Progressives".

      For all of it's 4.5+ BILLION years of existance the Earth has warmed, and cooled, in cycles. The 158 year relative nanosecond that we have been doing instrumented recordings cannot possibly show any sort of real trend.

      Also, we do know that, at one time, Japan was once part of mainland Asia, Tazmania was once part of mainland Australia, the Falklands were once part of mainland South America, Georges Bank was once a high-and-dry part of the area now known as Massachussets. Then the earth warmed, the seas rose, and those places are now islands, or under water, and that happened WAY BEFORE mankind was on the scene!

      So, to all those environmental fear-mongers out there, do TRY to control your EGOs. We are not that significant. We cannot control hurricanes or tornadoes, plate tectonics or vulcanism, and we canNOT control the overall climate of the entire planet.

      Evolution is, and will be, ongoing for ever, the best we can do is ADAPT, to whatever happens. Get over it.

    14. John Canada says:

      There is also the darker side door aspect of this. Liberals, progressives or elites practice birth control and have for the most part two children if any.

      Their long term political survival depends on finding a way to stop the (non elites) from having six or eight kids. True that some may become liberals but most do not. Even with most new immigrants in their camp.. they cant pull ahead. This save the planet measure will also serve their cause and slow or eliminate the people who will vote against them in the future.. its not the survival of the planet its the survival of liberalism. Thats why there is this insane logic deficit. Thats why such rubbish is gold plated as 100% truth. Like the cheating spouse that only sees cheating… They only see lies from the right.. because thats all they practice. We mirror what we are in others. In your hearts you know this to be true. They one way or another one day or another this will come to a head… lets hope heads dont roll.

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